Heat pump vs gas furnace: which costs less to run here?
At January 2026 statewide averages, a gas furnace. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) compares heating fuels in dollars per million Btu (British thermal units, a measure of heat) and lists appliance efficiency as a factor. Dividing by efficiency gives the cost of delivered heat:
Cost per million Btu of heat = fuel cost per million Btu / efficiency
A furnace's efficiency is its AFUE, the ratio of useful energy output to energy input over the heating season. A heat pump's is its COP, the heat moved per unit of electricity, typically 2 to 4 for air source models.
- Electricity: 17.59 cents per kWh, Ohio's January 2026 residential average (EIA Electric Power Monthly). At 3,412 Btu per kWh, that is $51.55 per million Btu.
- Natural gas: $11.03 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet) in January 2026. At 1,036 Btu per cubic foot, that is $10.65 per million Btu.
- Propane: $2.553 a gallon, week of January 12, 2026. At 91,452 Btu per gallon, that is $27.92 per million Btu.
EIA's gas and electricity averages divide all that customers paid, fixed charges and taxes included, by the energy sold, so they run above the per unit rates on a bill. Its propane price excludes taxes.
| Heat source | Fuel cost per million Btu | Efficiency | Cost per million Btu of heat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat pump, mild weather | $51.55 | COP 3.0 | $17.18 |
| Heat pump at 5 F, cold climate minimum | $51.55 | COP 1.75 | $29.46 |
| Electric resistance (strips, baseboard) | $51.55 | 100 percent | $51.55 |
| Gas furnace | $10.65 | 95 percent AFUE | $11.21 |
| Gas furnace | $10.65 | 80 percent AFUE | $13.31 |
| Propane furnace | $27.92 | 95 percent AFUE | $29.39 |
COP 1.75 is the ENERGY STAR cold climate minimum at 5 F; 3.0 is illustrative, not a model rating. EIA puts electric resistance at 100 percent efficiency.
A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) fact sheet for the Midwest agrees that where electricity is expensive, switching from gas to a heat pump can add cost.
Furnace with AC, heat pump alone or dual fuel: how do they compare?
At these averages a 95 percent gas furnace makes the cheapest heat; a heat pump alone leans on costly resistance heat in deep cold, and dual fuel adds heat pump cooling to the furnace.
| Gas furnace with central AC | Heat pump alone | Dual fuel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat cost per million Btu, January 2026 | $11.21 to $13.31 on gas; $29.39 on propane (95 percent) | $17.18 to $29.46; $51.55 on resistance backup | The cheaper of the two at your rates |
| On the coldest nights | The furnace, at full output | Less output, topped up by electric resistance | The furnace |
| Cooling | A separate air conditioner | The heat pump | The heat pump |
| Worth pricing when | The AC still has years left | No gas or propane furnace worth keeping | The AC is due; furnace and ducts are sound |
How does a dual fuel system decide when to switch to the furnace?
Mostly by outdoor temperature: below a set point, the heat pump stops and the furnace takes over. On one thermostat line, the Honeywell Home T6 Pro, that setting is labeled compressor lockout or balance point, adjustable from 5 F to 60 F.
The furnace can also step in above that point when the heat pump falls behind: in Rheem's 1998 dual fuel kit instructions, a second stage call for heat stops the compressor and starts the furnace.
What switchover temperature makes sense at Ohio gas and electric prices?
With propane it can sit low; with gas at January 2026 averages it sits high. Switch where your heat pump's COP falls to your break even COP: electricity cost per million Btu divided by furnace heat cost per million Btu.
- 95 percent gas furnace: $51.55 / $11.21 = about 4.6, above EIA's typical range. At these averages, the furnace should carry nearly all the heating.
- 80 percent gas furnace: about 3.9. A heat pump that beats that in mild weather earns its keep.
- 95 percent propane furnace: about 1.75, the ENERGY STAR cold climate minimum at 5 F, so with a cold climate model the switchover can sit low.
Most nights here are milder than that: NOAA's 1991 to 2020 normals for Cleveland count about 13 nights a year at or below 10 F. So with propane, the heat pump can carry most of the season.
Why dual fuel still makes sense when gas is cheaper
The heat pump replaces the air conditioner you would otherwise buy, adds a second way to make heat (both use the furnace blower), and lets you follow the cheaper fuel as prices move. The trade off: the DOE's 2017 standards analysis put the average heat pump lifetime at about 15 years, against 21 for a central air conditioner.
Run it on your own bills
- Take per unit prices (supply plus delivery) from your bills: cents per kWh, and dollars per Mcf, Ccf (100 cubic feet) or therm (100,000 Btu).
- Leave out fixed charges, such as the $43.43 service charge per billing period in Enbridge Gas Ohio's residential tariff. You pay them either way, and leaving them out usually makes gas look cheaper still than in the table.
- Convert to dollars per million Btu: cents per kWh x 2.931; dollars per Mcf / 1.036, per Ccf x 9.65, per therm x 10, per gallon of propane x 10.93. Divide the gas or propane figure by the furnace's AFUE (0.95 for 95 percent), then divide the electricity figure by the result: that is your break even COP.
- Find your heat pump's COP at 47 F, 17 F and 5 F, which NEEP's cold climate specification asks manufacturers to report. The NEEP product list may have it, though NEEP says some eligible models are missing since its move to AHRI data; otherwise, ask the manufacturer. Switch where the COP crosses your break even.
The heat pump must also keep up with the house at that temperature, a question for the load calculation.
Can I add a heat pump to the gas furnace I already have?
Usually, if the furnace and ductwork are sound. The heat pump's outdoor unit replaces the air conditioner's, and its indoor coil sits on the furnace.
- Coil placement: a Trane installer's guide says the coil must sit downstream of the furnace, in the air leaving it. Rheem warns that a heat pump coil in the return air can rust the heat exchanger and cause burner malfunction, a fire hazard and a danger of asphyxiation.
- Airflow: the same guide requires the indoor unit to provide the airflow the heat pump combination needs.
We size the heat pump with a Manual J load calculation, check the ductwork and static pressure, and verify the refrigerant charge by superheat and subcooling at start up. It is often simplest when the air conditioner is due; if the furnace is failing, see our heating page.
Cost depends on equipment, labor, electrical and ductwork changes, and permits, the DOE fact sheet notes; an on site quote gives the real number. Do not count on the federal tax credit it mentions: the IRS says it covers improvements made through December 31, 2025, not a 2026 installation.
Does dual fuel need a special thermostat or control?
Yes. The control must know it runs a heat pump with fuel backup, and to switch at a set outdoor temperature it must know that temperature. Two common ways:
- A thermostat with dual fuel settings. Not every model has them: in the T6 Pro line, only the TH6320U and TH6220U offer a backup heat setting and an outdoor sensor.
- A separate dual fuel kit that switches on an outdoor thermostat at the heat pump, as in Rheem's instructions.
Both mean low voltage wiring and installer menu settings; leave those to the technician, and ask to see where the switchover is set.
When is a heat pump alone the better choice?
When there is no gas or propane furnace worth keeping. The DOE Midwest fact sheet says a heat pump saves more in homes heated by propane, fuel oil or electric resistance. A sound propane furnace still pairs well, with a low switchover.
Electric baseboard costs $51.55 per million Btu; a heat pump at COP 1.75 to 3.0 makes the same heat for 57 down to 33 percent of that.
The catch: without a furnace, backup heat on the coldest nights is electric resistance, the costliest line in the table. ENERGY STAR cold climate models must keep at least 70 percent of their 47 F heating capacity at 5 F; how heat pumps handle our winters covers the rest.
When to call Raber HVAC
For most Northeast Ohio homes we recommend dual fuel. Run the steps above on last winter's bills. Reading bills and looking up your model's COP is safe homework; wiring, gas, refrigerant and furnace work belong to a technician.
If you smell gas, do not use switches, phones or anything that could spark. Get everyone outside, then call 911 or your gas company's emergency line from a safe place (Enbridge Gas Ohio: 1-877-542-2630; for propane, your supplier).
Call (216) 888-4822, every day from 8:00 AM to 10:00 PM, or book online and the office calls to confirm. For no heat, an active leak or a sewage backup, the same number reaches our 24/7 emergency line.
Sources
- U.S. EIA, Electric Power Monthly, March 2026, Table 5.6.A
- U.S. EIA, Ohio Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers
- U.S. EIA, Natural Gas Prices, Definitions
- U.S. EIA, Weekly Ohio Propane Residential Price
- U.S. EIA, British Thermal Units (Btu)
- U.S. EIA, How do I compare the cost of heating fuels?
- U.S. EIA, Winter Fuels Outlook 2024-25
- ENERGY STAR, Air Source Heat Pumps Key Product Criteria
- U.S. DOE, Purchasing Energy-Efficient Residential Furnaces
- U.S. DOE, Heat Pump Benefits, Midwest
- U.S. DOE, Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Standards, 2017
- IRS, Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit
- NOAA NCEI, Climate Normals 1991 to 2020, Cleveland
- NEEP, Cold Climate Air Source Heat Pump Specification, Version 4.0
- NEEP, Cold Climate Heat Pump Product List
- Honeywell Home, T6 Pro Installer Setup
- Rheem, Dual Fuel Kit Installation Instructions (1998)
- Trane, Installer's Guide, Replacement Coils
- Enbridge Gas Ohio, Residential Transportation Service Tariff
- Enbridge Gas Ohio, Smell Gas?